Two Important Events Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Wednesday 6 August 2008, there will be two important events in the political calender of Malaysia.

First, the Election Commission will meet to fix the dates for the nomination and polling days for the Permatang Pauh by-election; made necessary by the resignation of its Member of Parliament, Datuk Seri Dr Azizah.

The Malaysian Parliament opposition leader (until last weekend) resigned to make way for her husband, former Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (top pic). But Azizah will remain President of the People's Justice Party (PKR), presumably until the next party election.

Anwar, the spiritual leader of PKR, was the Permatang Pauh MP until the 1999 Malaysian general election. Azizah took over in that election as Anwar was jailed and disqualified form contesting the year before.

In 1999, Azizah won with almost 10,000 majority votes. In the 2004 election, however, her majority was drastically reduced to just a few hundred votes. In the 8 March 2008 election, dubbed Malaysia's political Tsunami, her majority miraculously jumped to over 13,000!

When Anwar was jailed for sodomy (which was later overturned by a higher court) and corruption in 1998, every Malaysian thought that was the end of his political career. Then, on March 8, he led the opposition (PKR+Muslim-based PAS+Chinese-based DAP) into an unprecedented good showing; denying the ruling BN the much-needed two-thirds majority in Parliament and taking control of 5 state governments.

The by-election is supposed to enable Anwar to become an MP which in turn would enable him to become the Prime Minister, a post which eluded him in 1997 when, despite being heir-apparent, he was sacked by his boss, Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Anwar couldn't contest in March as his corruption offence prevented him from doing so until April.

Anwar has repeatedly said he would be PM by 16 September, the date Malaysia was formed in 1963; through the supposedly switching of camps by some BN MPs. In March, the opposition won 82 MP seats and the BN 130. Will he finally achieve his dream, of becoming PM? Only God knows. Meanwhile, another sodomy charge is staring at his face!

The other important political event tomorrow is the meeting of the Supreme Council of Malaysia's ruling National Front (BN). On its agenda will also be two important discussions.

First, the meeting will discuss, of course, the Permatang Pauh by-election. Who will represent BN? What strategy to use? Or should BN contest at all? (At least one BN leader had suggested boycotting the by-election so as not to fall into Anwar's trap.)

Next on the agenda is the fate of Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), a component of the BN. On 18 June, SAPP president Datuk Yong Teck Lee dropped a bombshell by declaring that his party had lost confidence in BN chairman and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

(Bottom picture shows Yong (left) with SAPP MP Dr Chua Soon Bui and party deputy president Raymond Tan (right) at a meeting in June. Tan, also a Deputy Chief Minister in the Sabah State Government, is being seen by most SAPP members as a vallian because of his differing views. He has openly denied Yong's press statements on two occasions since the bombshell. It is also rumoured that he may join another Chinese-based BN component party should SAPP be sacked tomorrow in order to protect his government post.)

He added that SAPP's two MPs will either move or support a motion of no-confidence on Abdullah in Parliament the following week. To cut the long story short, until today that motion has not been moved.

SAPP has however in the meantime received a show cause letter and been given one month to explain its action. That one month expired last week and SAPP has replied.

The BN meeting tomorrow will study SAPP's reply and decide on possible disciplinary actions including sacking from the coalition. In other words, tomorrow is D-Day for SAPP.

Yong has repeatedly said that SAPP was prepared to face any disciplinary action. Political observers however pointed out that sacking is exactly what Yong wants.

"If BN sacks SAPP, they are falling into the trap of Yong. Any sacking will make Sabahans symphatize with SAPP even more and this will translate into votes in the next election" said the observer.

Another observer said Yong, being a seasoned politician, is going for the long-term and has his eyes already on the next election although it may be still a few years away.

"Yong, a lawyer and former Sabah Chief Minister, is shrewd enough to realise that, based on the results of the March 8 election, parties aligned to the BN may not do well in Sabah again. By the next election, the wind of change which blew accross Peninsular Malaysia on March 8 would have reached East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) especially in the urban or Chinese areas," the observer said.

Good move, may be, Yong. But in the meantime SAPP members have to, understandably, brace for hard times, especially if the party is sacked from BN tomorrow. To begin with, the positions of its government appointees will be affected. SAPP has a full Minister and an Assistant Minister in the State Government plus many other lesser posts. Yong himself MAY be in trouble too. He MAY have a corruption case staring at him in the face.

Whatever it is, man proposes God disposes. Let His will be done, not ours.