M'sian PM: Guessing Game Over

The guessing game on whether Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (right in pix, seen with deputy Najib) will defend his presidency of UMNO, backbone of Malaysia's ruling coalition BN in March 2009, is finally over.

After weeks of speculation and intense speculations and lobbying by interested parties even right up to the last minute, Pak Lah (as he is fondly referred to) told the BN supreme council in Kuala Lumpur this afternoon that he had decided not to defend the post he first held in 2003 after taking over from Dr Mahathir Mohamad as Prime Minister.

The UMNO president is normally also the Malaysian Prime Minister. Similarly, the deputy president is the deputy premier. This has been the tradition since Malaya gained Independence from Britain in 1957. Malaya teamed up with former British colonies Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore to form Malaysia in 1963. However, Singapore left the federation in 1965. No Sabahan or Sarawakian has ever been Prime Minister. UMNO is non-existent in Sarawak while the highest post in UMNO held by a Sabahan is that of Supreme Councillor, above whom you have the 3 Vice Presidents, Deputy President and President.

Dissident voices calling on Pak Lah to step down first surfaced soon after the premier led the BN to its worst disastrous election outing since 1969 in March 2008. In the March election, BN lost its control of two-thirds of the 222 parliamentary seats as well as five state governments, something unprecedented. But we are not even talking about calls from the Opposition here. We are talking about calls from within his own ruling coalition of BN and UMNO.

Among the earliest to call on Pak Lah to resign were former Finance Minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who has also made known his intention to contest he UMNO presidency. This would be Razaleigh's third attempt to wrest the presidency, after narrowly losing to then PM Dr Mahathir in 1987. That contest led to the creation of Team A and Team B in UMNO. Interstingly, Pak Lah was in Razaleigh's Team B, running for the vice-presidency. Both Razaleigh and his running-mate for the deputy presidency, Tun Musa Hitam, lost. Thus, Pak Lah was the highest party official from Team B to win. In the 2004 party election, Razaleigh again made known is intention to contest the presidency against Pak Lah but failed to get the minimum number of nominations required from UMNO divisions. But why would Razaleigh 'sabotage' his former B Team mate instead of supporting him?. An observer pointed out this was probably because Razaleigh was sore that Pak Lah, his former 'junior' in both Team B and the government, did not make good use of Razaleigh's vast experience and seniority by appointing him to a senior post in both the government and party, for example a minister in a senior portfolio. Razaleigh was also once Trade and Industry Minister, a senior portfolio.

Another dissident who openly called for Pak Lah's resignation after the March election was Jerlun Member of Parliament, Mukhriz Mahathir. Mukhriz is son of Dr Mahathir who was Malaysian PM for 22 years from 1981. But why would Mukhriz attack his father's chosen successor? The answer is simple. While the first year was 'honeymoon' period, Dr Mahathir started criticising his succssor openly starting the 2nd year of Pak Lah's reign. The former Premier accused Pak Lah, among other things, of deviating from established policies and cancelling major projects started by Mahathir. Matters came to a head when Mahathir left UMNO a few months ago, saying he would only return when Pak Lah was no longer president.

But while Razaleigh and Mukhriz's public outbursts were understandable as they had an axe to grind and nothing to lose, what raised eye brows was the subsequent calls by Muhyiddin Yassin. This is because apart from being one of the 3 UMNO vice-presidents, he is also a senior minister in Pak Lah's Cabinet. Infact, ever since his public outbursts, Malaysians had expected Pak Lah to remove Muhyiddin from the Cabinet while others expected Muhyiddin to resign. "In Western countries, when you disagree you disassociate," said an observer. But then again, this is Malaysia. Pak Lah, being the 'Mr Nice Guy' that he is, did not sack Muhyiddin and neither did the latter resign.

As if that was not enough, the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), a component part of BN, had on 18 June 2008 declared it had lost confidence on Pak Lah as PM and threathened to move a motion of no-confidence against the premier in Parliament. SAPP left the coaliton on 17 September 2008.

In July, Pak Lah announced a transition plan whereby he would hand over power to Najib by June 2010. He would in the meantime defend his UMNO presidency in December. But that did not stop the critics. Instead, criticisms intensified, saying that the transition period was too long and wanted Pak Lah to leave after the December party polls - meaning Pak Lah should not even defend his presidency.

Then last month, Pak Lah postponed the party polls to March 2009, saying that it had something to do with hastening the transition plan. Although he still did not say when he would go, his action was understood to mean that he would not defend the presidency in March and hand over to Najib by then. He said he would announce his decision by October 9, the day UMNO divisions begin nominating candidates for the party top posts including that of the presidency. He had one day before the September meeting handed over the important Finance portfolio which he has held since becoming PM to Najib, a move seen as pacifying dissidents.

With Pak Lah's long-awaited announcement today, Najib is almost certain to be the next PM and UMNO president come March. This is assuming that he would not be challenged for the presidency. So far, only Tengku Razaleigh has made known his intention to contest the post. "But even if Najib is challenged, he is expected to win hands down. After all, Razaleigh may not even get the mimumum nominations required to contest just like 3 years ago," said the observer.

Will UMNO under Najib be rejuvenated and will the Najib-led BN deliver a better showing in the next election, just like Pak Lah's good showing in 2004? Only time will tell. In the meantime, Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim said his plans to seize power through defection of BN MPs is still on although no new date has been fixed. He missed his first dateline of 16 September 2008 by which time he said he would be the Prime Minister.