What's Next, Anwar?

I have not written anything about the Permatang Pauh by-election for the last two weeks partly because I got fed-up with all the mud-slinging, name-calling, accusations and counter-accusations; most of which are personal in nature instead of trying to win over voters through policies. (Refer to my earlier posts about even politicians themselves getting fed-up between June and July)

Anyway, now that the result is out, I got to write something about it. If anything, at least I want to put the frontpage of today's Star (pix above), Malaysia's leading tabloid daily, on record. As I have said before, my experience with the archives has taught me to save in my computer whatever is important historically. Not just for myself, but also for the benefit of our future generations and non-Malaysians visitors of my blog.

As usual, I have chosen to reproduce the Star because of its appropriate heading plus a huge photograph of Anwar Ibrahim and his wife Azizah on its frontpage. (Click on the image for a larger view) Most of the government or ruling party-controlled media played down Anwar's victory. The UMNO-controlled New Straits Times, Star's rival, carried a banner headline saying "It's Anwar as expected".

RTM, the government TV station, in its news analysis this morning also described Anwar's victory as "as expected". It even went ahead to say that Anwar's victory was nothing to shout about as his margin of majority was only slightly higher than that of his wife. Azizah, who stood in for Anwar while the former Deputy Premier was in jail and later barred from election, obtained a 13,000+ majority in March this year while Anwar's was 15,000+. The last time he contested while still Deputy Prime Minister in 1995, his majority was 23,000+ which was even more than that of the then Prime Minister.

Following Anwar's election yesterday, there were rumours that he would be sworn-in only next week (September); thus missing the 2009 Malaysian Budget presentation by the Prime Minister, Abdullah Badawi in Parliament Friday. However, the Speaker announced this morning that Anwar could be sworn-in tomorrow, in time for the Budget speech which will be telecast live over local TV.

And the Opposition certainly wasted no time. This afternoon the coalition of Anwar's PKR, the Chinese-based DAP and Islamic party PAS informed the Speaker of their choice of Anwar as Parliamentary Opposition Leader, replacing Azizah who resigned as MP on July 31. This means that Anwar will be sitting directly facing the Prime Minister cum Finance Minister who will be presenting the Budget. Previously as DPM, Anwar was seated next to the PM, facing the Opposition bench. What a reversal of fortunes!

However, if you speak to any Opposition supporter, he or she will tell you that Anwar will not be sitting on the Opposition bench for long. This is because Anwar and his supporters have been telling Malaysians that come September 16 (the date which Malaysia was formed in 1963), the Opposition coalition collectively known as Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance) would be the government.

Pakatan Rakyat (PR) needs 30 government backbenchers from the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) to cross over for it to form the government. It won only 82 parliament seats in the March 8 election, described as Malaysia's political Tsunami, as opposed to BN's 140. 'Tsunami' because in the last Parliament, there were only 20-odd opposition MPs. In addition, the opposition also won 5 of Malaysia's 13 states in March.

But events since March 8 had shown that moving a vote of no-confidence against the Prime Minister in Parliament is easier said than done, let alone winning it! After the Budget tabling on Friday, the Malaysian Parliament will take a month-long break due to the Muslim fasting month. Islam is the official religion of Malaysia and normally official functions are minimised during the holy month of Ramadan.

This means that the Opposition can forget about the September 16 dateline if the no-confidence method is to be used. Another possible method is for Anwar to present to the Yang Di-Pertuan Agong (Malaysian King) a list containing signatures of MPs supporting him to be the new PM; assuming he has the number by then as claimed. Even then, the King is not obliged to invite the Opposition leader to form the government. Even then, the incumbent PM may challenge it in court since his 'losing of control' has not been proven in Parliament.

On top of that, it is not easy to get 30 MPs to jump. A few may be easy, but 30 won't be as easy as the BN is still firmly in control. Infact, the Malaysian government is so powerful that one would think twice before jumping. There is the dreaded Internal Security Act or famously known as ISA which allows detention without trail. The government also controls the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) which decides who gets investigated or charged. Then of course, there is the Income Tax thing.

To illustrate my point further, it has been three months since Sabah Progrssie Party or SAPP, a member of the ruling coalition, dropped a bombshell saying it had lost confidence in the Prime Minister and BN chairman Abdullah. At that time, many people thought that would be the end of Pak Lah (the PM's nick name) as an exodus or snowball effect was expected to follow. But SAPP has only two MPs and nobody else followed and even then the duo are officially still BN MPs! Three months later, Pak Lah is still the PM and the no-confidence motion threathened by SAPP has still not been moved! Azizah tried once but her motion didn't even get debated!

Any PR or SAPP supporter reading this may say that I am pro-BN. But if I were pro-BN, I would not have reproduced the Star's frontpage above. I am just a blogger who is trying to be objective and credible. If you read my writings since last year, you would know that I try to be unbiased. But as I have said before my experience as a reporter tells me that no matter how you write, there is always people unhappy.

A true journalist or blogger's job is not to make people happy. We are NOT entertainers. We are writers who hope to establish a name or following for ourselves. There is no greater satisfaction than knowing that people can't wait to read what you write next. Of course, I concede that in this world there may be mercenary writers but I am not one of them. Read my writings from the start and judge for yourselves.

Besides, I didn't say that it is impossible for the Opposition to topple the government or for Anwar to take over as PM. All I am saying is given the present circumstances, September 16 is perhaps no longer a tangible date. The real show will only begin when Parliament sitting resumes in October. Even then, the Speaker can find excuses to block any no-confidence motion if he wants to.

So, Anwar, what's next? By the way, congrats.

(P/S: By the way, to give credit where it is due, I salute DPM Najib who was BN's director of operations for the Permatang Pauh by-election for congratulating Anwar and accepting the decision of the voters. It is a good start to try to win back the voters come next election.)